Scenario planner
The Scenario Planner, a feature of the Deliverables report, helps you simulate and predict when your team will finish a project based on various inputs such as headcount, issue velocity, and scope.
Key concepts
| Variable | Description |
|---|---|
| Historical velocity | This is how fast the team has worked in the past. For example, if 100 issues were completed in 10 days, the historical velocity is 10 issues per day. This rate is based on the work completed from the start of the deliverable up to the most recently finished issue. Additionally, we apply a minimum rate of 0.25 issues/points per day. |
| Contributor ratio | This considers how headcount will change. For example, if the team grows from 5 to 8 people, the team’s capacity increases by a factor of 1.6 (because 8 ÷ 5 = 1.6). |
| Attention ratio | This considers how attention will change. For example, if time spent on the deliverable increases from 50% to 100%, the team’s capacity increases by a factor of 2 (because 100 ÷ 50 = 2). |
| Remaining scope | This is the amount of work left to do, measured in issues or points. |
Calculations
Projected Velocity
Historical Velocity (how fast the team worked in the past) x Contributor Ratio (how team size will change) x Attention Ratio (how attention will change). This yields how much scope will be completed per day going forward.
Projected Completion
Remaining Scope divided by the Projected Velocity. This yields how many days from now the work will be finished.
Remaining Time
How much time is left (in days) from now until the projected completion date.
Remaining Effort
How many dev weeks 1 engineer at 100% capacity would need to finish the remaining work.
Example
Scenario
- Historical data: 5 contributors completed 100 issues in 10 days at 50% attention.
- Future changes: 8 contributors will focus 100% of their attention on the deliverable.
- Today’s date: Jan 1
Inputs
- Contributors: 8 (Contributor Ratio = 8/5 = 1.6)
- Attention: 100% (Attention Ratio = 100 / 50 = 2)
- Remaining Scope: 200 issues
Results
- Historical Velocity: 10 issues per day (100 issues ÷ 10 days)
- Projected Velocity: 10 × 1.6 × 2 = 32 issues/day
- Time to complete: 200 (issues remaining) ÷ 32 = 6.25 days
- Projected completion: Jan 1 + 7 days = Jan 8