Cycle predictability
The Cycle predictability report measures how accurately a team delivers on its initial cycle commitment. Use this metric to evaluate planning accuracy and establish a basis for forecasting future cycles.
Note: Cycle predictability is only available when Linear is connected to DX.
When to use cycle predictability
Cycle predictability answers the question: Did we deliver what we promised at the start?
This report helps teams:
- Measure planning accuracy — High predictability indicates the team is skilled at estimating capacity and scoping work appropriately.
- Identify estimation gaps — Low predictability may signal issues with story sizing, scope creep, or capacity planning.
- Build stakeholder confidence — Consistent predictability builds trust in cycle commitments.
How predictability percentage is calculated
The predictability percentage is calculated as:
Completed work ÷ Planned work
Where:
- Completed work includes all completed issues in the cycle, whether planned or unplanned
- Planned work is the total story point/issue count for issues that were in the cycle when the cycle started
This metric focuses on whether the team delivered on its original commitment, regardless of additional work that may have been added during the cycle. Cycle predictability can be calculated based on either story points or issue counts.
Understanding planned vs. unplanned work
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Planned points | Story points for issues that existed in the cycle at the cycle start time |
| Unplanned points | Story points for issues added after the cycle started |
| Completed points | Story points for all issues marked complete during the cycle, regardless of when they were added |
How unplanned work is handled
Cycle predictability compares the total delivered value against the initial commitment.
While unplanned work is excluded from the target (Planned Points), it is counted towards the result (Completed Points) if finished. This allows teams to measure if they delivered the volume of work promised, even if the specific tasks changed during the cycle.